Statistical review 2026: crime in London vs England and Wales and the security industry response

London’s crime landscape continued to differ from the wider England and Wales picture during 2025/26. While several high-harm offences, including knife-enabled crime and homicide, declined nationally, London continued to experience the pressures associated with a large metropolitan population, transport network, retail economy and busy public spaces.

This review examines the latest available official statistics for the year ending March 2026 and considers how professional private-security providers, including Novus Altair and Novus Guard, can support deterrence, incident management and evidence-led security operations.

Overview of crime in London in 2025/26

Between April 2025 and March 2026, the Metropolitan Police Service recorded 916,176 total notifiable offences across London. This represented a 3% decrease compared with 943,843 offences during the previous 12 months. Although this was an improvement, the volume of recorded crime demonstrates the continuing security demands facing businesses, residential developments, retail environments, construction projects and public-facing organisations across the capital.

Knife-enabled crime

Knife crime remained an important concern, but the latest official figures show a notable improvement. The Metropolitan Police recorded 13,806 knife-enabled offences in the year ending March 2026, a 15% decrease from the previous year.

London nevertheless accounted for approximately 28% of all knife-enabled offences recorded across England and Wales, reflecting the concentration of this type of offending in major metropolitan areas.

The characteristics of knife crime in London also differed from the national picture. Metropolitan Police analysis for financial year 2025/26 found that approximately 58% of London knife-enabled offences were robbery-related, and most of those involved personal robbery. By comparison, nationally, assault with injury or intent to cause serious harm formed the largest category alongside robbery.

Robbery and theft risks

Robbery continues to be particularly relevant to security planning in London because of the capital’s high pedestrian traffic, retail density, transport hubs and valuable portable goods such as mobile phones.

Across England and Wales, robbery of personal property fell by 9% to 57,693 offences in the year ending March 2026. However, total recorded robbery rose to 87,362 offences, largely because recorded robbery of business property increased sharply following clarification of Home Office counting rules. Business-property robbery rose to 29,669 offences.

The change is important when interpreting 2026 figures: part of the increase reflects how incidents involving theft and violence or threats against shop workers and security personnel are now classified, rather than necessarily representing an equivalent rise in underlying offending.

Violence and homicide

The Crime Survey for England and Wales estimated approximately 989,000 incidents of violence with or without injury in the year ending March 2026. This represented no statistically significant annual change, although estimated violence remained substantially below levels recorded a decade earlier.

Police recorded 499 homicides across England and Wales, a 7% decrease from 539 in the previous year and the lowest total recorded under current police-recording practices since the year ending March 2003. Knife or sharp-instrument homicides also declined, falling to 176 offences.

Sexual offences

Police recorded 217,567 sexual offences across England and Wales in the year ending March 2026, approximately 4% higher than the previous year.

These figures should be interpreted carefully. The Office for National Statistics states that police-recorded sexual offences are not a reliable measure of changes in underlying prevalence because reporting behaviour, police recording practices and changes in offence definitions have influenced recorded totals over time.

The Crime Survey for England and Wales separately estimated that around 2.1% of people aged 16 and over — approximately one million people — experienced sexual victimisation including attempts during the year. The survey questions were newly developed, meaning these estimates should not be directly compared with previously published figures.

England and Wales: the wider 2026 picture

The national picture was mixed rather than showing a simple increase or decrease in crime.

The Crime Survey for England and Wales estimated approximately 9.6 million incidents of headline crime in the year ending March 2026. This was not a statistically significant change from approximately 9.4 million incidents the previous year.

Police recorded approximately 5.2 million crimes excluding fraud and computer misuse, around 1% lower than the previous year. However, the ONS cautions that police-recorded crime should not be treated as a direct measure of overall crime trends because recording standards, reporting behaviour and police activity can affect the figures.

Several high-harm offences declined:

• Knife and sharp-instrument offences fell 8% to 48,774.
• Firearms offences fell 8% to 5,151.
• Homicide fell 7% to 499 offences.
• Personal robbery fell 9% to 57,693 offences.
• Shoplifting fell 4% to 507,086 offences, following substantial increases in earlier years.

Fraud remained a major concern. The Crime Survey estimated approximately 4.5 million fraud incidents, while the proportion of people experiencing fraud increased to 7.8%. Bank and credit-account fraud was estimated to have risen by 15%.

Serious and organised crime in 2026

The National Crime Agency’s 2026 Strategic Assessment identifies serious and organised crime as an increasingly technology-enabled threat.

Criminal networks are making greater use of online platforms, encrypted communications, artificial intelligence and specialist criminal services to identify victims and scale their operations. The NCA has consequently placed greater emphasis on digital intelligence, analytics, international partnerships and cooperation with private-sector technology organisations.

Fraud enforcement has also intensified. During Operation Henhouse in February 2026, UK agencies reported:

• 557 arrests;
• 172 voluntary interviews;
• 249 cease-and-desist notices;
• account-freezing orders involving approximately £9 million; and
• approximately £18.1 million in seized cash and assets.

These developments demonstrate why modern security increasingly combines physical guarding with intelligence, digital reporting and technology-led risk assessment.

The changing role of private security

The latest crime picture strengthens the case for moving beyond security models based solely on guard numbers.

For businesses and property operators, an effective security strategy increasingly combines:

Visible deterrence. Trained officers and mobile patrols can provide a visible security presence around entrances, retail premises, construction sites, residential properties and events.

Access control. Identity checks, visitor management and controlled entry procedures can reduce unauthorised access and create better accountability.

Conflict management. Frontline personnel require training to identify escalating behaviour, communicate effectively and follow appropriate escalation procedures.

CCTV and remote monitoring. Video surveillance combined with trained control-room operators can improve situational awareness and accelerate verification of incidents.

Incident documentation. Accurate digital logs, timestamps and supporting evidence can assist clients, insurers and law-enforcement investigations.

Data-led deployment. Historical incidents and operational reporting can be used to identify recurring locations, times and behaviours associated with increased risk.

Novus Altair

Within this environment, Novus Altair provides SIA-licensed guarding and security services designed around prevention, observation, reporting and coordinated response.

Its guarding model can incorporate visible patrols, access control, incident management and communication with control-room personnel, particularly across environments such as construction sites, corporate premises, residential locations, retail operations and events.

Through centralised monitoring and incident logging, security teams can create a clearer record of events and provide clients with information that can support future risk assessments and operational decisions.

Novus Guard

Novus Guard extends the conventional guarding model through technology-assisted security management.

Depending on deployment requirements, its capabilities can support areas such as:

• real-time security reporting;
• digital incident workflows;
• CCTV and threat-monitoring processes;
• hotspot and incident-pattern analysis;
• communication between officers and control-room teams;
• lone-worker protection; and
• structured escalation of security incidents.

Mobile tools such as Novus Guard Pro and Novus Guard Solo can support officers and users who need rapid or discreet access to reporting and security-response functions.

The objective is not to replace trained security personnel with technology, but to give personnel better information, faster communication and more consistent incident-management processes.

What the 2026 figures mean for security buyers

The latest statistics suggest that security planning should be based on the specific risks associated with a location rather than national headline figures alone.

London recorded fewer total notifiable offences in 2025/26 than in the preceding year, and knife-enabled crime also fell substantially. At the same time, the capital continues to account for a significant proportion of national knife crime, while robbery, retail-related violence, fraud and technology-enabled organised crime remain important risks.

For security buyers, this supports a layered approach combining trained personnel, surveillance, access control, rapid reporting and data-led deployment.

Conclusion

The latest available evidence does not show a uniform increase in crime during 2026. Instead, it shows a more complex picture.

For the year ending March 2026, London recorded 916,176 total notifiable offences, 3% fewer than the previous year, while knife-enabled crime recorded by the Metropolitan Police fell 15% to 13,806 offences. Nationally, homicide, knife crime, firearms offences, personal robbery and shoplifting also declined, although fraud, business-related robbery classifications, sexual-offence reporting and technology-enabled organised crime continue to present significant challenges.

For organisations operating in London, the implication is that effective security should increasingly be evidence-led, technology-supported and intelligence-informed. Professional guarding, CCTV monitoring, structured incident reporting and platforms such as Novus Guard can form part of that layered approach, helping organisations improve deterrence, visibility and response while maintaining clear records when incidents occur.